Morningstar Inc. carries a market capitalization of roughly $6.3 billion as of mid-February 2026, placing the financial data and research giant in a peculiar position. The stock, trading around $154.54 per share on the NASDAQ, has shed approximately 51 percent from its 52-week high of $330.55, a brutal decline for a company that just posted record revenue and beat Wall Street’s earnings expectations. That disconnect between business performance and stock price is exactly the kind of puzzle that makes Morningstar’s valuation worth examining closely. The company reported full-year 2025 revenue of $2.45 billion, a 7.5 percent increase over the prior year, along with adjusted diluted earnings per share of $9.86, up 25 percent.
Free cash flow came in at $442.6 million. By the numbers, the underlying business is performing well, yet the market has punished shares anyway. Analysts still maintain price targets averaging between $280 and $322.50, suggesting they see the current price as a significant discount. Whether that gap closes or the analysts are wrong is the central question for anyone interested in what Morningstar is actually worth. This article breaks down the company’s valuation from multiple angles, including its balance sheet, revenue segments, recent acquisitions, and analyst sentiment, to give a clearer picture of where things stand.
Table of Contents
- How Much Is Morningstar Worth Based on Market Cap and Book Value?
- Why Has Morningstar’s Stock Dropped Despite Strong Earnings?
- Which Business Segments Drive Morningstar’s Revenue?
- What Do Analysts Say Morningstar Is Worth?
- What Risks Could Affect Morningstar’s Valuation Going Forward?
- How Does the CRSP Acquisition Change Morningstar’s Worth?
- Where Does Morningstar’s Valuation Go From Here?
- Conclusion
- Frequently Asked Questions
How Much Is Morningstar Worth Based on Market Cap and Book Value?
There are several ways to measure what a company is worth, and they rarely agree. Morningstar’s market capitalization of approximately $6.33 billion reflects what public investors collectively believe the company is worth right now. But book value tells a different story. As of fiscal year 2024, total stockholders’ equity sat at roughly $1.62 billion, meaning the market is pricing the company at nearly four times its accounting value.
That premium makes sense for a data and analytics business with significant intellectual property, recurring revenue streams, and brand recognition that does not show up on a balance sheet. Total assets reached approximately $3.63 billion by mid-2025, up about 6.67 percent year over year, while total liabilities stood at around $921 million. The balance sheet carries $1.07 billion in total debt following refinancing activity during 2025. That debt load is manageable given the company’s free cash flow generation, but it is worth noting that Morningstar also spent $787 million on stock buybacks during 2025, an aggressive capital return that signals management confidence but also limits financial flexibility. For comparison, the entire free cash flow for the year was $442.6 million, meaning the buyback program was funded partly by taking on debt, a tradeoff that looks great if the stock rebounds but less ideal if the decline continues.
Why Has Morningstar’s Stock Dropped Despite Strong Earnings?
The company’s fourth-quarter 2025 results, reported on February 12, 2026, were objectively strong. Revenue of $641.1 million beat the Wall Street estimate of $634.4 million by 2.2 percent. Earnings per share of $2.71 topped the consensus forecast of $2.34 by $0.37. Adjusted operating income grew 26.1 percent to $153.5 million, with margins expanding to 23.9 percent. On paper, there was nothing to complain about. Yet the stock has fallen roughly 26.2 percent year to date and sits near the bottom of its 52-week range of $149.08 to $330.55. Several factors may be at play.
Broader market conditions, sector rotation away from financial data providers, and the sheer altitude of the prior valuation all contribute. At its peak, Morningstar was trading at a price-to-earnings multiple that assumed aggressive growth acceleration. When that acceleration did not materialize at the pace the market wanted, despite solid execution, the multiple compressed. This is a textbook case of a stock that was priced for perfection and then punished for merely delivering good results. However, if you are evaluating Morningstar purely on fundamentals, the current situation looks different than the stock chart suggests. A company growing revenue at 7.5 percent with expanding margins and strong cash flow generation trading at around 20 times forward earnings is not obviously overvalued. The risk is that revenue growth decelerates further or that the broader market selloff has further to go.
Which Business Segments Drive Morningstar’s Revenue?
Morningstar is not a single-product company, and understanding its revenue mix matters for assessing long-term value. The fastest-growing segment in 2025 was Morningstar Credit, which posted 21.7 percent revenue growth. This unit, built largely from the acquisition of DBRS Morningstar, competes with major credit rating agencies like Moody’s and S&P Global. The credit ratings business carries high margins and benefits from regulatory moats that make it difficult for new competitors to enter. PitchBook, the private markets data platform Morningstar acquired in 2016, grew revenue by 8.6 percent.
PitchBook has become a critical tool for venture capital and private equity professionals, and its growth trajectory remains strong even as the broader venture market has cooled from its 2021 peak. Morningstar Direct, the company’s core investment research platform used by asset managers and financial advisors, grew 5.4 percent. While that is the slowest growth rate among the three highlighted segments, Direct generates highly recurring subscription revenue that provides a stable base. The diversification across credit ratings, private market data, and investment research means Morningstar is not overly dependent on any single revenue stream. That said, if you are bullish on Morningstar’s valuation, the credit segment is likely where the most upside resides, given both its growth rate and the historically high profitability of the ratings industry.
What Do Analysts Say Morningstar Is Worth?
Wall Street analysts who cover Morningstar maintain ratings ranging from Moderate Buy to Strong Buy, with an average 12-month price target between $280 and $322.50. The high estimate sits around $320, while the low estimate is $257. Even the most bearish published target implies roughly 66 percent upside from the current price of approximately $155, which is an unusually wide gap between where the stock trades and where analysts think it should be. That disconnect requires some interpretation. Analyst price targets tend to be lagging indicators. Many of these targets were set when the stock was trading higher, and not all analysts update their models in real time.
Some may revise lower in the coming weeks. Still, the magnitude of the difference suggests genuine disagreement between the analyst community and the market. The current price-to-earnings ratio of roughly 20 times 2026 estimates and a free cash flow yield of approximately 4.2 percent make Morningstar cheaper than it has been in years, at least on a relative basis. The tradeoff for investors is straightforward. If you trust the analyst consensus, the stock is deeply undervalued and the market is overreacting. If you think the analysts are behind the curve and the business faces headwinds they have not fully modeled, then the current price may be justified or even generous. There is no way to resolve that disagreement without a view on the company’s competitive position and future growth trajectory.
What Risks Could Affect Morningstar’s Valuation Going Forward?
The most immediate risk is the $1.07 billion in total debt on the balance sheet, which grew in part to fund both stock buybacks and acquisitions. While the debt is manageable relative to cash flow, the company just closed its acquisition of the Center for Research in Security Prices on February 2, 2026, funded through a five-year term facility. Adding leverage during a period when the stock is declining limits the company’s ability to be opportunistic if conditions worsen further. Competition is another concern that does not always get enough attention. In credit ratings, Morningstar is still a distant third behind S&P Global and Moody’s, and gaining market share in that duopoly is a grind measured in years, not quarters.
PitchBook faces growing competition from Bloomberg, S&P Capital IQ, and newer entrants in the private markets data space. And the core Morningstar brand, while iconic among individual investors and financial advisors, generates less pricing power than the enterprise-focused platforms. There is also the question of whether Morningstar’s aggressive buyback program, $787 million in 2025 alone, was well-timed. Buying back stock near all-time highs and then watching the price fall 51 percent is the kind of capital allocation mistake that erodes shareholder value. Management clearly believed the stock was undervalued at higher prices, but the market has disagreed emphatically.
How Does the CRSP Acquisition Change Morningstar’s Worth?
Morningstar’s acquisition of the Center for Research in Security Prices, which closed on February 2, 2026, adds a valuable asset to the company’s portfolio. CRSP is best known for maintaining benchmark indices that underpin some of the largest exchange-traded funds in the world, including Vanguard’s Total Stock Market ETF. The revenue tied to those indices is highly recurring and grows naturally as assets under management in linked products increase.
The strategic logic is clear: owning CRSP deepens Morningstar’s index business and creates cross-selling opportunities with its existing data and analytics platforms. The risk is execution, specifically integrating CRSP without disrupting its relationships with major fund sponsors, while managing the incremental debt taken on to finance the deal. If the integration goes smoothly, CRSP could become one of the higher-margin contributors to Morningstar’s revenue base within a few years.
Where Does Morningstar’s Valuation Go From Here?
The next twelve months will likely determine whether Morningstar’s current price represents a generational buying opportunity or a value trap. The bull case rests on continued revenue growth in the mid-to-high single digits, margin expansion from operating leverage, and a re-rating of the stock’s multiple as the market recognizes the quality of the business. Analysts who target $280 or higher are essentially betting on that re-rating.
The bear case hinges on slowing growth, rising competition, and a market environment that continues to punish highly valued financial data companies. If revenue growth decelerates to the low single digits or the credit ratings business hits a soft patch, the stock could remain range-bound or decline further. What is not really in dispute is that Morningstar is a fundamentally strong business generating nearly half a billion dollars in free cash flow annually. The debate is entirely about what multiple that cash flow deserves.
Conclusion
Morningstar Inc. is worth approximately $6.3 billion by market capitalization as of February 2026, though that figure has shrunk dramatically from a 52-week high that implied a valuation closer to $14 billion. The underlying business posted $2.45 billion in revenue, $442.6 million in free cash flow, and earnings growth of 25 percent in 2025. By any traditional financial metric, the company is executing well.
The stock’s decline reflects a compression in valuation multiples rather than deterioration in the business itself. For those evaluating Morningstar as a potential investment, the key question is whether the current price-to-earnings ratio of roughly 20 times forward estimates adequately reflects the company’s competitive advantages, recurring revenue base, and growth in segments like credit ratings and PitchBook. Analysts overwhelmingly believe the answer is no, with price targets that imply 80 to 100 percent upside. The market, for now, disagrees. Watching the integration of the CRSP acquisition, the trajectory of the credit ratings segment, and management’s capital allocation decisions over the next few quarters should provide the clearest signals about which side is right.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is Morningstar’s current stock price?
As of February 13, 2026, Morningstar (MORN) trades at approximately $154.54 per share on the NASDAQ, near the low end of its 52-week range of $149.08 to $330.55.
How much revenue does Morningstar generate?
Morningstar reported full-year 2025 revenue of $2.45 billion, a 7.5 percent increase over the prior year, with fourth-quarter revenue of $641.1 million.
Why has Morningstar’s stock price dropped so much?
The stock has fallen roughly 51 percent from its 52-week high despite strong earnings results. The decline appears driven by multiple compression, broader market conditions, and a reassessment of the premium valuation the stock previously carried rather than any fundamental business weakness.
What is Morningstar’s price target according to analysts?
Analysts have an average 12-month price target between $280 and $322.50, with a high estimate of $320 and a low estimate of $257, implying substantial upside from the current trading price.
Does Morningstar pay a dividend?
Morningstar has historically paid a modest dividend, though its primary capital return mechanism in 2025 was stock buybacks totaling $787 million.
What is CRSP and why did Morningstar acquire it?
The Center for Research in Security Prices maintains benchmark indices used by major ETFs, including some of the largest Vanguard funds. Morningstar closed the acquisition on February 2, 2026, to strengthen its index and data businesses.